# [7D] Russia Expands High-Intensity Strike Campaign into Multi-Wave Drone and Missile Operations

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 2:42 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T02:42:31.146Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-19T02:42:31.146Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, Bordering Russian regions (Bryansk, Kursk) as launch areas
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian electricity generation and transmission, Air defense systems and missile stockpiles, Rail logistics nodes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9202.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Russia is likely to follow the current Geran-2 wave with additional multi-wave drone and missile strikes aimed at Ukraine’s energy grid, command nodes, and air defense sites across several oblasts. The pattern will be one of repeated saturation attempts, with strategic bombers launching cruise missiles in at least one large-scale package, to exhaust Ukrainian interceptor stocks and create localized blackouts. Ground offensives in eastern and northeastern sectors will be coordinated with these strikes but will yield only limited territorial gains due to entrenched Ukrainian defenses and Russia’s attrition-focused doctrine. A contrarian scenario would be a shift to more limited strikes if Russia faces critical munitions constraints or strong international backlash.

## Drivers

- End of truce and immediate resumption of large-scale drones and artillery
- Theater assessments of preparations for a large combined missile–drone strike involving strategic bombers
- Sustained trend toward drone-saturated attrition warfare and economic targeting