# [24H] Crude benchmarks retain elevated risk premium above recent averages amid Hormuz closure fears

*Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 at 8:44 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-11T20:44:43.224Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-12T20:44:43.224Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 82% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf region, EU, China, India
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai benchmark, Refined product cracks (gasoline, diesel), Energy equities and shipping stocks, High-yield energy credit
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9163.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Brent and WTI prices are likely to remain near or above the $100/barrel area with intraday volatility, as traders maintain a significant geopolitical risk premium tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and heightened U.S.–Iran war risk. Reports of multiple tankers transiting dark and signals that Trump is weighing renewed strikes will reinforce bullish positioning and keep backwardation steep. However, the absence of a fresh kinetic trigger within 24 hours will limit additional upside, leading to range-bound trading rather than a new leg higher. Refined product cracks, particularly for gasoline and middle distillates in Europe and Asia, will stay supported due to perceived supply chain fragility. Any credible sign of de-escalation would prompt a fast but likely modest pullback, as structural fears about OPEC output and shipping risks persist.

## Drivers

- Daily brief noting oil prices nearing or exceeding $100/barrel with OPEC output at 20-year lows
- Multiple warnings about tankers going dark across Hormuz amid Iranian threats
- Flash report that Hormuz closure persists and Trump is eyeing strikes
- Sanctions tightening on Iranian exports and associated networks