# [24H] Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Expiry Triggers Renewed Long‑Range Drone and Missile Strikes

*Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 at 8:42 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-11T08:42:57.127Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-12T08:42:57.127Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, Western Russia
**Affected Assets**: European natural gas futures, Ukrainian grain export logistics, Defense and drone manufacturing equities in NATO states
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9098.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours of the ceasefire regime expiring, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to resume or intensify deep‑rear drone and missile strikes, especially on logistics hubs and energy infrastructure. Ukrainian forces will likely continue or increase mass drone/artillery operations on the Pokrovsk axis and possibly strike Russian rear areas, while Russia may retaliate against Ukrainian power and industrial assets. The pattern will likely mirror prior escalation cycles, but still within an attrition framework rather than a strategic breakthrough.

## Drivers

- Warning that Russia–Ukraine ceasefire expires today with escalating drone/artillery activity
- Sustained trend of drone‑saturated attrition warfare and economic targeting
- Recent mass drone and artillery attacks in Donetsk and Mykolaiv regions