# [7D] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Campaign on Russian and Adjacent Energy Infrastructure Persists

*Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 at 2:46 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-11T02:46:25.743Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-18T02:46:25.743Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Baltic region (Latvia, possibly neighboring states), Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil refineries and storage, Rail and pipeline logistics, NATO air defense systems and political credibility
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9078.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine is likely to continue or even intensify its drone and missile strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy-related infrastructure, potentially including high-risk strikes near or across NATO-adjacent territories if flight control fails. The recent hit on Latvian oil storage and Rēzekne fuel depot, albeit accidental, highlights both capability and navigational risk. Russia will respond with enhanced air defenses around critical refining nodes and possibly retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy assets. NATO will pressure Kyiv to tighten operational control to avoid further airspace violations.

## Drivers

- OSINT confirmation of 10 AVT units at Russian refineries hit, reducing output by ~1.5 million tonnes
- Recent Ukrainian drones striking oil storage in Latvia and Rēzekne fuel depot, revealing reach and risk
- Trend of Russia normalizing drone warfare under nominal ceasefires
- Ukraine’s strategic incentive to degrade Russian refining to constrain fuel supplies and export revenues