# [24H] Israeli Airstrikes in Lebanon Maintain or Slightly Intensify Following Iron Dome Hit

*Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 at 2:46 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-11T02:46:25.743Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-12T02:46:25.743Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Lebanon, Nabatieh Governorate, Jezzine District, Northern Israel
**Affected Assets**: Israeli air defense batteries, Lebanese power infrastructure, Hezbollah rocket and drone units
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9068.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Israel is likely to sustain or slightly intensify its air campaign in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah’s successful FPV drone attack on an Iron Dome battery. Expect continued targeting of power infrastructure, suspected rocket and drone launch sites, and Hezbollah command facilities, particularly around Nabatieh, Jezzine, and areas south of Beirut. Ground incursions north of the Litani are unlikely to expand dramatically in this window but probing operations and special forces raids may increase. Israel will aim to re-establish deterrence without triggering full-scale war with Hezbollah.

## Drivers

- Hezbollah release of first-ever FPV drone strike footage hitting an Iron Dome battery and crew
- Recent Israeli strikes on power stations and infrastructure near Nabatieh and Jezzine causing outages
- Emerging trend that IDF ground advance north of Litani signals erosion of Lebanon red lines
- Ongoing high operational tempo of ~270 IDF airstrikes in Lebanon over recent days