# [7D] Iranian proxies in Iraq increase indirect fire and drone attacks on US-linked sites

*Issued Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 9:59 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-10T09:59:38.173Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-17T09:59:38.173Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 67% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and central Iraq (Anbar, Najaf, possible Baghdad periphery), Syria–Iraq border corridors
**Affected Assets**: US and coalition bases and logistics routes, Iraqi energy infrastructure (as potential collateral), Commercial aviation risk assessments over western Iraq
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8991.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

During the next seven days, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq are likely to moderately increase rocket and drone attacks on US and coalition facilities in western and central Iraq, especially around Anbar and the Najaf desert, as part of Tehran’s indirect response to tanker incidents. These attacks will mostly remain below a mass-casualty threshold and may target logistics hubs, small forward bases, and convoy routes to signal capability without inviting full-scale US retaliation. US special operations presence and recent airdrops near Nukhaib suggest Washington is preparing to preempt and disrupt such networks, raising the risk of tit-for-tat strikes. A contrarian outcome would be Tehran instructing proxies to exercise restraint to avoid opening another front while it focuses on the maritime theater.

## Drivers

- Recent pro-Iranian attacks in Iraq and missile strikes on FOBs in Najaf desert
- US special forces airdrops and landings near Nukhaib, indicating active counter-militia operations
- IRGC threats tying tanker interference to US base attacks