# [24H] Safe-haven flows support gold and modestly pressure EM FX with Gulf exposure

*Issued Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 9:59 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-10T09:59:38.173Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-11T09:59:38.173Z (18h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 68% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global financial markets, MENA, South Asia, Turkey
**Affected Assets**: Gold, Select EM FX (TRY, INR, EGP and GCC pegs via sentiment), Defensive equity sectors (utilities, defense)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8987.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming 24 hours, gold prices are likely to see incremental safe-haven inflows, adding perhaps 0.5–1.5% upside intraday, as markets digest rising risks in Hormuz, Lebanon, and the Korean Peninsula. Emerging-market currencies with direct energy-import or regional exposure (e.g., Turkish lira, Indian rupee, select MENA FX) will face mild pressure as investors hedge geopolitical risk and higher energy costs. However, strong US dollar dynamics and central-bank intervention may cap moves, keeping them in a modest range absent a major new incident. A contrarian outcome would be a risk-on reversal if no further escalatory headlines emerge and some diplomatic signals calm markets.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Strait of Hormuz conflict driving gold hedging behavior
- Sustained escalation in Lebanon and Gulf shipping risks
- North Korean nuclear posture change raising global nuclear-risk perception