# [7D] Sustained elevated freight and insurance rates for Gulf and East Med energy shipping

*Issued Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-10T03:59:23.693Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-17T03:59:23.693Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Eastern Mediterranean
**Affected Assets**: Tanker day rates, War-risk insurance premiums, Refined product benchmarks (gasoline, diesel, jet), Energy shipping companies
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8968.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, freight and war-risk insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and, to a lesser extent, Eastern Mediterranean routes will remain elevated and may edge higher. Shipowners will demand compensation for heightened risk of Iranian retaliation, US interdictions, and potential spillover from the Israel–Hezbollah theater. Some operators will temporally reroute or delay voyages, increasing voyage times and tightening prompt supply availability. These cost pressures will feed into refined product pricing and contribute to elevated regional crack spreads.

## Drivers

- US strikes and seizures of Iranian oil tankers near Hormuz and Jask
- IRGC’s explicit linkage of tanker incidents to strikes on US bases and ships
- UK and likely allied moves toward multinational escorts signaling prolonged risk
- IDF-Hezbollah confrontation near East Med energy lanes