# [24H] Continued Russian and Ukrainian drone and artillery activity despite nominal ceasefire

*Issued Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-10T03:59:23.693Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-11T03:59:23.693Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Donetsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Southern Russia (Rostov, Krasnodar air and logistics nodes)
**Affected Assets**: Frontline ground units on both sides, Russian regional air operations and logistics, Civil-military dual-use infrastructure in southern Russia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8956.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Russian forces will continue to launch Geran-2/FPV drones and MLRS strikes against Ukrainian positions and border areas in Donetsk and Kharkiv, while Ukraine maintains counter-battery fire and selective deep-strike drone operations into Russia. The symbolic ceasefire will remain largely disregarded tactically, serving more as information operations cover than a binding constraint. Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional long-range drone probe against Russian infrastructure, though not necessarily another civil ATC node immediately. The intensity will stay below the threshold of a major offensive but high enough to signal that the truce is effectively hollow.

## Drivers

- Large Russian drone wave during the announced ceasefire
- Recent Ukrainian drone strike on a southern Russian ATC center
- Emerging trend of ceasefires used as tactical pauses for asymmetric strikes
- Ongoing reports of shelling and FPV strikes in Donetsk and Kharkiv