# [24H] Continued Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes into Russia Despite Ceasefire Window

*Issued Saturday, May 9, 2026 at 6:41 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-09T06:41:38.645Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-10T06:41:38.645Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Russia (Dagestan, Tula, Moscow region, occupied Donetsk)
**Affected Assets**: Air defense systems, Logistics depots, Russian Caspian Flotilla infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8833.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukrainian forces are likely to continue or at least not fully halt long-range UAV operations against Russian territory, including deep rear areas like Dagestan and regions around Moscow. The scale may be somewhat reduced or rebranded as targeting strictly military infrastructure to avoid overtly breaking the US-brokered ceasefire, but tactical commanders will exploit ambiguities. Russia will respond with elevated air-defense activity and limited retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. This pattern will erode the credibility of the 9–11 May ceasefire while falling short of a formal collapse.

## Drivers

- Recent mass Ukrainian drone attacks on Kaspiysk, Tula, and other Russian regions just hours before ceasefire start
- EUCOM assessment highlighting continued Ukrainian long-range UAV activity and Russian barrages
- Emerging trend of Ukraine leveraging drones to contest Russia despite symbolic ceasefire