# [30D] Persistent elevated energy prices and volatility tied to dual Hormuz and Russian refinery risks

*Issued Friday, May 8, 2026 at 6:43 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-08T06:43:03.831Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-07T06:43:03.831Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil and refined product markets, Major importing regions (EU, China, India), Exporters in the Middle East and Russia
**Affected Assets**: Brent and WTI futures, Refined product futures and cracks, Energy equities and sovereign energy revenues, Strategic petroleum reserves policies
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8717.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, global energy markets are likely to experience persistently elevated prices and volatility, driven by concurrent risks from the U.S.–Iran confrontation in Hormuz and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refining capacity. Brent is likely to retain a multi-dollar risk premium over pre-crisis levels, while diesel and gasoil cracks remain structurally wider due to constrained Russian product exports and precautionary stocking. Markets will oscillate with each escalation or de‑escalation signal from the Gulf and with news on Russian refinery damage and repairs. Governments may contemplate or activate strategic stock releases if volatility threatens domestic prices.

## Drivers

- Sustained clashes around Hormuz threatening crude and product flows
- Repeated drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and dispatch stations
- Emerging trends of global food and energy systems exposed to Hormuz insecurity
- Prior episodes showing prolonged risk premia after Gulf and Russian supply shocks