# [24H] Ukraine conducts follow-on deep strikes against Russian energy and security sites

*Issued Friday, May 8, 2026 at 6:43 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-08T06:43:03.831Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-09T06:43:03.831Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Perm Krai, Yaroslavl Oblast, Chechnya (Grozny), Moscow region, Frontline regions in Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and pipeline dispatch stations, FSB and military bases, Russian air defense networks, Ukrainian urban and power infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8695.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine or Ukraine-linked actors are likely to attempt at least one additional deep strike against Russian rear-area assets, focusing on refineries, oil logistics, or internal security facilities. The reported hits on Yaroslavl Slavneft, Perm refining/distribution sites, and Grozny military/FSB targets indicate an ongoing saturation campaign rather than isolated actions. Russian air defenses will remain on high alert around Moscow, major refineries, and symbolic sites, raising shoot‑down rates but not fully stopping penetrations. Limited kinetic retaliation on Ukrainian urban centers by Russia is also probable, framed as responses to 'terror attacks'.

## Drivers

- Multiple recent Ukrainian drone/missile strikes on Perm, Yaroslavl, Grozny, and Rostov
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian long-range drone warfare eroding Russian depth
- Reports of 400+ UAVs launched and hundreds intercepted in latest wave
- Symbolic collapse of the advertised Russian Victory Day ceasefire