# [24H] Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy and logistics nodes continue at high tempo

*Issued Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 3:44 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-07T15:44:14.537Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-08T15:44:14.537Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Perm region, Russia, Sochi, Russia, Lipetsk, Russia, Kyiv, Ukraine, Donetsk and Mykolaiv regions, Ukraine, Baltic region airspace
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined product exports, European diesel and gasoline benchmarks, Defense and UAV manufacturers in Europe and North America
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8559.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional drone or missile strikes against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, or logistics hubs beyond the immediate front, following repeated attacks on the Perm refinery and reported explosions in Sochi and Lipetsk. Kyiv’s framing of these attacks as 'long-range sanctions' and the normalization of deep strikes ahead of symbolic May 9 events supports sustained operations. Russia will respond with further missile and Shahed drone strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and possibly attempt a high-profile strike near Kyiv to reinforce deterrence, especially after televised threats against the government quarter. Cross-border UAV incidents involving NATO-adjacent airspace (e.g., near Latvia) may recur, drawing further allied air policing responses. A contrarian outcome would see temporary operational pause due to weather, ISR constraints, or munitions availability, leading to a brief lull in deep strikes without signaling de-escalation.

## Drivers

- Multiple confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez in quick succession
- Reports of explosions and active air defenses in Sochi and Lipetsk
- Emerging trend: normalization of cross-border deep-strike campaigns
- Russian threats against Kyiv’s government quarter linked to May 9 symbolism