# [7D] Russia and Ukraine Sustain High-Tempo Reciprocal Deep-Strike Campaigns Including Occasional NATO Border Incursions

*Issued Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 9:46 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-07T09:46:43.978Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T09:46:43.978Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western and Central Russia, Baltic states, Eastern Poland
**Affected Assets**: Refineries and fuel depots, Rail hubs and logistics centers, Urban power and heating infrastructure, NATO air defense and early warning systems
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8537.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to maintain elevated UAV and missile strike tempo against each other's energy and logistics infrastructure, with at least one additional airspace violation or incident near NATO borders (Baltics or Poland). Ukraine will continue prioritizing refineries and export-critical nodes such as Perm and other Volga or Black Sea facilities, while Russia targets Ukrainian power, rail, and urban centers. Accidental or deniable UAV incursions into NATO territory are likely to recur as flight paths are extended and air defenses are saturated. Neither side is incentivized to de-escalate given the symbolic Victory Day context and the strategic leverage of deep strikes.

## Drivers

- Emerging and sustained trends of mutual deep-strike normalization and Victory Day-driven escalation
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Perm refinery and Nara logistics complex
- Russian drone and missile attacks on Bryansk and Sumy using new glide bombs
- Multiple Russian and Ukrainian-origin drone incidents in Latvian airspace