# [24H] Israel conducts follow-on precision airstrikes in southern Lebanon but avoids full ground incursion

*Issued Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-06T22:17:45.446Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-07T22:17:45.446Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Lebanon, Beirut Dahieh district, Northern Israel
**Affected Assets**: IDF air assets, Hezbollah rocket and command infrastructure, Lebanese power and telecom nodes near targets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8443.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Israel is likely to carry out additional precision air and missile strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and possibly limited targets in Beirut’s Dahieh district, while avoiding any large-scale ground incursion. The recent strike on Haret Hreik and reported killing of Radwan commanders indicate an ongoing campaign to degrade Hezbollah command and elite units. Israel will calibrate strikes to maintain pressure and deterrence without triggering a full-war mobilization while Iran talks are peaking. Hezbollah will respond with limited rocket or anti-tank fire but will avoid massive salvos into central Israel to preserve its strategic arsenal.

## Drivers

- Recent Israeli airstrikes on Haret Hreik and Yater and reported hit on Hezbollah Radwan commanders
- Emerging trend of Israel–Hezbollah confrontation shifting toward a deep-precision shadow war
- CENTCOM threat level HIGH with mention of intensified Israeli–Hezbollah exchanges
- Simultaneous U.S.–Iran diplomacy incentivizes Israel to escalate within bounded parameters