# [24H] Brent Crude Holds in $95–$105 Range as Markets Balance Deal Optimism and Escalation Risk

*Issued Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 2:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-06T14:49:27.870Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-07T14:49:27.870Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf exporters, Major importers (EU, China, India)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Tanker freight rates, Energy equities and high-yield energy credit
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8393.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade in a broad but contained range around $95–$105 per barrel, with intraday volatility driven by headlines on the MoU and incidents in Hormuz. The recent plunge from ~$125 reflects partial pricing-in of a deal and Hormuz reopening, but Trump’s bombing threats and the drone shootdown cap further downside. Traders will stay highly headline-sensitive, with options and volatility metrics elevated, but a decisive breakout above prior highs or a collapse below $90 is unlikely until Iran’s response clarifies.

## Drivers

- FLASH reports of Brent plunging toward $100 on near MoU and reopening expectations
- Warnings that mixed signals are stalling the sharp oil price decline and keeping a risk premium
- Trump ultimatum reintroducing tail-risk of renewed bombing and prolonged blockade
- Ongoing shipping attacks and drone shootdowns in Hormuz maintaining supply risk perception