# [24H] Iran Delays Formal Response on US–Iran MoU While Issuing Hardline Public Statements

*Issued Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 2:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-06T14:49:27.870Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-07T14:49:27.870Z (22h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Iran, United States, Pakistan (mediation role), Gulf Cooperation Council states
**Affected Assets**: Diplomatic channels (embassies, mediators), Sanctions and compliance planning in multinationals, Regional security architectures (CENTCOM partnerships)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8391.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Iran is unlikely to formally accept or reject the proposed one-page MoU but will continue mixed signaling, with public rejectionist rhetoric from parliament and IRGC-linked voices coupled with quieter diplomatic engagement. Tehran will use this period to test US resolve and domestic consensus, denouncing the deal as unequal while preserving negotiation channels via Pakistan. Public denials such as labeling the draft an 'American wish list' will be amplified, but Iran will avoid moves that irreversibly close the diplomatic track.

## Drivers

- Iranian parliament security spokesman publicly denying existence/terms of a deal
- Reports that Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours to the draft MoU
- Pattern of Iranian negotiation tactics combining hardline public messaging with backchannel talks
- Ongoing cyber and political messaging campaigns by Iran and its proxies