# [24H] Ukrainian deep-strike drone attacks on Russian energy and military targets persist

*Issued Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 8:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-06T08:49:20.019Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-07T08:49:20.019Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Northwest Russia (including Leningrad Oblast), Crimea, Eastern and Central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined product exports (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel), Urals crude differentials, European diesel crack spreads
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8354.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt additional UAV or long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure or military facilities, following the successful Kirishi refinery attack and repeated strikes on Armyansk and Dzhankoi in Crimea. Kyiv has clearly shifted to a campaign targeting Russian defense-industrial and fuel nodes to degrade Moscow’s warfighting capacity. Near-term targets could include refineries, fuel depots, or logistics hubs in western Russia and occupied Crimea, leveraging established UAV corridors over Black Sea and border regions. Russian air defenses may intercept many drones, but even partial success creates outsized operational and economic disruption. The main counter-scenario would be a brief operational lull for planning or resupply, but momentum suggests continued activity.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian drone strike halting processing at Kirishi, Russia’s second-largest refinery
- Repeated Ukrainian UAV attacks on Armyansk and Dzhankoi in northern Crimea
- Emerging trend: Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russian energy and weapons enablers