# [24H] Continued Russian drone and missile barrages against Ukrainian cities despite collapsed truce

*Issued Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 8:49 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-06T08:49:20.019Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-07T08:49:20.019Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Russia (Rostov and Kursk launch regions), EU (indirect security implications)
**Affected Assets**: European gas and power risk premia, Ukrainian sovereign and corporate risk, Defense and air-defense manufacturers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8353.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to sustain high-tempo drone and missile attacks on key Ukrainian urban and infrastructure targets, including Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and frontline Donetsk oblast towns. The demonstrated launch patterns from Rostov and Kursk, combined with Russia’s overnight use of over 100 drones following a nominal ceasefire, indicate no intent to scale back ahead of May 9 commemorations. Targets will likely include energy nodes, logistics hubs, and civilian centers to pressure Kyiv after it rejected any May 9 ceasefire. This will maintain elevated strain on Ukrainian air defenses and increase civilian and infrastructure damage. A contrarian outcome would be a partial operational pause for reloading and political signaling, but indicators currently support continuity of attacks.

## Drivers

- Overnight launch of 108 drones and multiple missiles after Ukraine declared a ceasefire
- Multiple recent strikes on Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk oblast cities
- Emerging trend of erosion of ceasefire credibility around symbolic dates
- Russia’s desire to demonstrate strength ahead of May 9 Victory Day