# [24H] Ukraine Conducts Follow-On Deep Strikes Against Russian Rear Assets

*Issued Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-05T20:49:17.758Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-06T20:49:17.758Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and Central Russia, Russia-Ukraine border regions, Occupied Crimea
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries, Oil pumping stations, Defense-industrial facilities, Russian domestic fuel logistics
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8327.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional deep-strike operation against Russian defense-industrial or energy infrastructure, though not necessarily as far as Cheboksary. Kyiv will leverage the demonstrated success of the FP-5 'Flamingo' strike and ongoing campaign against refineries and pumping stations to maintain pressure on Russia’s war production and logistics. Russian air defenses will adapt, raising the probability of interception but not fully closing vulnerabilities. These actions will further normalize long-range attacks deep into Russia as part of Ukraine’s war strategy. Contrarian outcome: a temporary operational pause is ordered to assess Flamingo performance and conserve limited stocks, resulting in only shorter-range strikes along the front.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Flamingo cruise missile strike on VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary
- Ongoing Ukrainian strike wave against Russian refineries and pumping stations near Perm
- Emerging trend of systematic Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian industrial depth
- Political need for Kyiv to maintain deterrence and bargaining leverage