# [24H] Continuation of Large-Scale Ukraine–Russia Reciprocal Deep-Strike Exchanges

*Issued Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 7:12 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-05T07:12:58.377Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-06T07:12:58.377Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Leningrad Oblast, Russia, Chuvashia, Russia, Eastern and Central Ukraine (Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia), Black Sea and western Russia rear areas
**Affected Assets**: Kirishi (KINEF) oil refinery, VNIIR-Progress missile-electronics plant, Ukrainian rail nodes and locomotives, Naftogaz facilities and regional gas grids
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8192.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, both Ukraine and Russia are likely to continue high-tempo reciprocal strikes on each other's critical infrastructure, with Ukraine prioritizing Russian refineries and defense-industrial sites and Russia focusing on Ukrainian rail, energy, and industrial hubs. Ukraine’s repeated FP-5 Flamingo and drone salvos against Kirishi refinery and VNIIR-Progress suggest an ongoing campaign rather than a single event. Russia’s Iskander-M and UAV barrages on Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and gas infrastructure show a pattern of punitive retaliation and logistics interdiction. A temporary lull is possible for reloading and battle damage assessment but a genuine pause is unlikely given the emerging trend of sustained deep-strike dueling.

## Drivers

- Multiple high-severity reports of Flamingo and UAV strikes on Kirishi and VNIIR-Progress in the last hours
- Russian large-scale Iskander and drone attacks on Ukrainian rail and gas targets across multiple oblasts
- Emerging trend noting systematic Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy and defense-industrial nodes
- Theater assessment for EUCOM indicating sustained high-intensity reciprocal strikes