# [24H] Brent crude sustains elevated risk premium with intraday spikes above recent range

*Issued Monday, May 4, 2026 at 7:17 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-04T07:17:09.055Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-05T07:17:09.055Z (18h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 85% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Gulf producers, Major importing economies (EU, China, India, East Asia)
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gulf physical crude differentials, Tanker freight rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8069.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade with a sustained elevated risk premium and exhibit intraday spikes, potentially testing levels significantly above recent averages as traders price in both current tanker attacks and the risk of US–Iran clashes. Market participants will respond to cluster attacks near Fujairah and within Hormuz, plus the large scale of US military deployment, by increasing war-risk expectations even if physical supply remains largely intact. Volatility will be driven more by headlines and incident reports than fundamentals, leading to rapid price swings. A temporary de-escalatory statement from either side could trigger fast partial retracements, but underlying risk premia will remain.

## Drivers

- Multiple FLASH and WARNING alerts highlighting sharp escalation and disruption risks
- US mission moving from planning to execution with 15,000 troops and major naval assets
- IRGC projectile attacks on multiple tankers and boarding attempts
- Historical pattern of significant price reactions to Hormuz tensions