# [24H] Russia–Ukraine long-range drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure continue at current tempo

*Issued Monday, May 4, 2026 at 12:23 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-04T00:23:19.617Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-05T00:23:19.617Z (20h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western Russia (Moscow, Leningrad, Voronezh, Novgorod regions), Black Sea energy and logistics corridors
**Affected Assets**: Power generation and transmission infrastructure, Fuel depots and logistics hubs, Air defense systems
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/8009.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to continue long-range drone and missile attacks against each other’s energy and logistics infrastructure at a tempo similar to recent days. Ukrainian forces will prioritize air defense assets and fuel depots around western Russia, while Russian forces will strike Ukrainian electrical substations and fuel storage in frontline-adjacent regions such as Luhansk and possibly central Ukraine. No single strike is likely to be strategically decisive in this window, but cumulative damage will sustain the mutual energy attrition campaign.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: mutual infrastructure strikes turning the war into a long-range energy contest
- Recent Ukrainian drones downed over Moscow and multiple Russian regions
- Reports of Luhansk region under drone bombardment