# [7D] Persistent Global Oil Price Volatility from Combined Iran Blockade and Russian Refinery Strikes

*Issued Friday, May 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-01T23:21:20.013Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-08T23:21:20.013Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil-importing economies, Gulf region, Russia and Black Sea energy export corridors
**Affected Assets**: Brent and WTI crude, Diesel and jet fuel spreads, Tanker shipping rates in the Middle East and Black Sea
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/7406.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with price action driven by the combination of reduced Iranian exports from the U.S. blockade and periodic disruptions to Russian refining capacity from Ukrainian strikes. Markets will oscillate between fears of physical shortages and hopes for rerouted supplies and strategic stock draws. OPEC+ policy signals, particularly from Gulf producers and the UAE after its OPEC exit context, will be closely watched for stabilizing moves, but coordination may be limited. Refined product cracks, especially diesel and jet fuel, are likely to widen relative to crude benchmarks.

## Drivers

- U.S. naval blockade in Gulf of Oman cutting billions from Iranian oil revenue
- Continuing fires at Tuapse and risk of further Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
- Emerging trend of oil market destabilization from US–Iran conflict and OPEC+ strains