# [7D] Sustained Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Refineries and Air Bases

*Issued Friday, May 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-01T23:21:20.013Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-08T23:21:20.013Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia (Krasnodar Krai, Black Sea coast), Volga and Urals industrial belt, Russian air bases within 1,000+ km of Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries (Tuapse and others), Fuel storage and pipelines, Combat aircraft fleets, Russian domestic fuel markets
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/7400.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Across the next week, Ukraine is likely to execute multiple additional long‑range drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries, fuel depots, and high‑value aircraft, extending the pattern seen at Tuapse and Chelyabinsk. Targets may include Black Sea and Volga‑region refineries, as well as key air bases hosting bombers and advanced fighters. Russia will adapt with thicker air defense layers and possible dispersal of aircraft, but at least one more significant fire or temporary outage at an energy or aviation facility is probable. These strikes will incrementally raise domestic pressure in Russia and complicate its logistics for the Ukraine campaign.

## Drivers

- Recent mass drone raid toward Tuapse and claimed strike on Su‑57/Su‑34 aircraft
- Documented trend of Ukraine’s systematic deep‑strike campaign against Russian energy and logistics
- Incentive to offset Russian ground gains via strategic strikes