# [30D] Mutual Ukraine–Russia Energy Strikes Entrench Long-Term War of Attrition on Fuel and Power

*Issued Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 3:08 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-26T15:08:20.881Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-26T15:08:20.881Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Russia, EU energy market, Black Sea region
**Affected Assets**: European gas and power prices, Diesel and gasoline markets, Defense-industrial energy consumption, Humanitarian energy assistance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26542.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, both Ukraine and Russia are likely to normalize deep-strike campaigns on each other’s energy systems as core strategic tools, with Ukraine targeting refineries, depots, and rail nodes, and Russia prioritizing power infrastructure and urban grids. This mutual energy war will increase operational costs, complicate logistics, and harden civilian populations, making negotiated de-escalation less likely. Extended grid damage in Ukraine could spur new winter-displacement waves, while Russian refining losses will gradually erode export earning capacity. Confirmation would be multiple additional successful strikes on major energy infrastructure on both sides and doctrinal statements framing such attacks as ongoing strategy; denial would be a visible pause or external pressure limiting energy-targeting.

## Drivers

- Sustained trend: mutual deep-strike drone campaigns becoming an energy war of attrition
- Recent confirmed hits on Perm refinery, Ilsky refinery, Azov plant, and continued Russian urban grid attacks
- Institutionalization of long-range drone use by both sides