# [7D] Ukraine Expands Strategic Drone Campaign to New Russian Refineries and Rail Nodes

*Issued Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 3:08 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-26T15:08:20.881Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-03T15:08:20.881Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 71% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia (Volga region, Urals, Krasnodar), Ukraine, EU (fuel imports), Black Sea
**Affected Assets**: Diesel and gasoline in Central/Eastern Europe, Russian fuel export streams, Rail logistics within Russia, Brent Crude and refined product cracks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26533.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within a week, Ukraine is likely to broaden its deep-strike campaign to include at least two additional major Russian refineries or critical oil rail junctions beyond Perm and Ilsky. The goal will be to cumulatively erode Russian refining output, complicate military logistics, and force Russia to divert costly air defenses away from the front. Incremental damage will tighten regional product balances, especially diesel, and gradually dent Moscow’s export revenues. Confirmation would be geolocated footage and Russian admissions of new hits on large refineries or key rail hubs; denial would be a sharp reduction in Ukrainian long-range strikes due to resource or diplomatic constraints.

## Drivers

- September tally of 30 Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy and industrial facilities
- Recent successful attacks on Perm refinery and rail tank cars (Operation Barrel)
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian deep-strike campaign reshaping risk calculus in Russian rear areas