# [24H] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Drones Likely Hit Additional Russian Oil or Port Asset Within 24 Hours

*Issued Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 3:08 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-26T15:08:20.881Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-27T15:08:20.881Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, Black Sea, Sea of Azov, EU
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Urals Crude, Diesel (EU), Russian refining sector, Black Sea shipping insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26524.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next day, Ukraine is likely to execute at least one additional long-range drone or missile strike against a Russian refinery, gas facility, or Black Sea/Azov port asset. Target selection will prioritize high-visibility energy nodes to reinforce the perception of an energy war of attrition. This will marginally tighten Russian regional fuel supply and sustain geopolitical risk premiums in crude and products. Confirmation would be Russian reports of new refinery/port damage or fire; denial would be an absence of such incidents alongside Ukrainian focus solely on frontline targets.

## Drivers

- Documented September pattern of 30 Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil, gas, chemical, port and military facilities
- Recent successful hits on Perm refinery, Ilsky refinery, and Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant
- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike campaigns hardening into energy war of attrition