# [30D] Mutual Deep-Strike Energy War Between Russia and Ukraine Escalates Into Sustained Attrition Campaign

*Issued Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 9:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-26T09:08:34.308Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-26T09:08:34.308Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western and southern Russia, European energy-importing states, Black Sea and Baltic maritime zones
**Affected Assets**: Diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil benchmarks, European power prices, Russian budget revenues, Ukrainian industrial output and grid infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26514.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, Russia and Ukraine are likely to entrench their mutual deep-strike campaigns into a sustained energy war, with Ukraine targeting Russian refineries, fuel depots, and logistics hubs, and Russia striking Ukrainian power grids, industrial plants, and fuel storage. Both sides will invest in larger and more numerous drones, decoys, and EW capabilities, expanding the geographical scope of strikes and increasing the risk of collateral damage in third countries via misfires or debris. The result will be chronically stressed fuel markets, higher wartime logistics costs, and growing political pressure in Europe to provide advanced long-range systems or push for ceasefire talks. Confirmation would be recurring monthly strikes on energy infrastructure causing measurable output or grid losses; disconfirmation would be a negotiated or de facto moratorium on such targets.

## Drivers

- Clustered Ukrainian strikes on Perm, Ilsky, Afipsky refineries
- Russian emphasis on Kyiv industrial and potentially grid targets
- Sustained trend of mutual deep-strike drone campaigns hardening into energy attrition