# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Raids on Russian Refineries Likely to Continue Tonight

*Issued Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 9:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-26T09:08:34.308Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-27T09:08:34.308Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Krasnodar Krai, Russia, Perm Krai, Russia, Southern Military District and occupied Ukrainian regions
**Affected Assets**: Diesel futures (ICE Gasoil), Fuel oil markets, Urals crude differential to Brent, Russian energy and logistics companies
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26497.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one follow-on drone operation against Russian energy or industrial targets in the next 24 hours, focusing on refineries in Krasnodar Krai or the Volga-Urals. Russian air defenses, already strained by intercept claims of over 600 drones, will struggle to guarantee protection of Ilsky, Afipsky, or alternative facilities, forcing Russia to disperse air-defense assets from the front. Continued attacks degrade Russian fuel availability to its Southern Military District and occupied Ukrainian territories, eventually slowing tempo and raising logistical costs. Confirmation would be fresh explosions, fires, or shutdown reports at Russian refineries; disconfirmation would be a documented Ukrainian operational pause or a night with no claimed cross-border strikes.

## Drivers

- Large-scale Ukrainian drone barrages hitting Ilsky, Afipsky, and shutting Perm refinery
- Emerging trend of Ukrainian deep-strike campaign on Russian rear infrastructure
- Sustained pattern of mutual deep-strike energy warfare