# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Drone Campaign on Russian Energy Infrastructure After Successful Perm Strike

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:12 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T19:12:43.712Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T19:12:43.712Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Global refined product markets
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, European diesel and jet fuel prices, Russian rail and pipeline logistics, Energy-sector cyber and physical security services
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26423.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine or Ukrainian-aligned actors are likely to attempt additional long-range drone strikes against Russian refineries, fuel depots, or power plants beyond Perm, seeking to sustain psychological and logistical pressure. The success at Perm will push Kyiv to allocate more resources to deep-strike UAV development and target selection focused on export-critical nodes. Russia will respond by dispersing fuel logistics, hardening defenses around key assets, and possibly escalating its own attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. Confirmation would be at least one more significant Russian energy facility disruption attributed to Ukrainian drones; denial would be Russian air-defense improvements rapidly stopping further penetrations.

## Drivers

- Reports that the Perm refinery was shut down by a Ukrainian-aligned drone strike
- Emerging trend of mutual long-range infrastructure strikes as primary coercion tools
- EUCOM and CYBERCOM assessments highlighting strategic drone duels and industrial attrition