# [24H] Iranian Jan-Fada Drills Expand Air Defense Posture Near Gulf Energy Corridors

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 1:13 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T13:13:51.255Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T13:13:51.255Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iran, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Aviation insurance in Gulf, Airline equities with Gulf exposure, Tanker shipping rates (AG-Europe, AG-Asia)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26384.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to continue or publicize Jan-Fada exercises with an emphasis on air defense and missile deployments in Khuzestan and Fars, signaling readiness to threaten Gulf airspace. The drills will include simulated targeting of regional bases and corridors linked to US and Gulf assets, feeding the narrative that Iran can close skies if its airlines are constrained. This heightens miscalculation risk around commercial and military flights near the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent air corridors. Confirmation would be IRGC media releases showcasing SAM and missile training near coastal provinces; denial would be drills remaining low-visibility with no explicit linkage to the aviation threats.

## Drivers

- Multiple Jan-Fada military exercises reported across Iranian provinces
- Senior adviser threatened to disrupt all civilian aviation in region in response to US sanctions
- CENTCOM threat level assessed as HIGH
- US funds laser defenses near Hormuz, indicating preparation for missile/ drone threats