# [7D] Venezuela Power Crisis Curtails Heavy Oil Upgrading and Exports by Mid-Single-Digit Percentages

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:13 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T07:13:33.624Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T07:13:33.624Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Venezuela, Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast, China and India (importers of Venezuelan crude)
**Affected Assets**: Merey and other Venezuelan heavy crude benchmarks, Maya and Western Canadian Select spreads, PDVSA revenues
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26367.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, recurring grid instability in Venezuela is likely to reduce operational uptime at heavy oil upgraders and refineries, trimming export volumes by a mid-single-digit percentage relative to recent baselines. Even modest disruptions can significantly affect niche heavy-sour crude markets already constrained by sanctions and limited alternative suppliers. This will marginally tighten spreads for heavy grades and improve pricing power for other producers like Canada and Mexico. Confirmation would be reported shutdowns or curtailments at key upgraders and a dip in tanker loadings; disconfirmation would be stable or rising export volumes and evidence of reliable power to oil operations despite broader blackouts.

## Drivers

- Venezuela grid demand surpassing previous crisis highs with acknowledged lagging supply
- Oil operations’ dependence on steady power for upgrading and blending
- Historical precedent of blackouts significantly disrupting oil output