# [7D] Russia–Ukraine Drone War Shifts Toward Sustained Nightly Salvos Targeting Industry and Energy

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:13 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T07:13:33.624Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T07:13:33.624Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western and Central Russia, Black Sea region, Belarus airspace
**Affected Assets**: Electric power grids in Ukraine, Russian refinery and petrochemical network, Defense-electronics manufacturing in Ulyanovsk and similar hubs, Civil aviation in affected corridors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26359.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to normalize near-nightly drone salvos, with Russia concentrating on Ukrainian energy and Ukraine focusing on Russian refineries and defense plants. Neither side appears constrained by doctrine or political red lines against industrial targets, and both benefit from low-cost, scalable systems. This pattern will gradually degrade infrastructure resilience and force both governments to allocate more air-defense assets and repair crews away from the front. Confirmation would be several consecutive nights with triple-digit drone launches theater-wide; disconfirmation would be a negotiated or de facto pause in deep-strike exchanges.

## Drivers

- Record mutual drone barrages and broad target set including refineries and electronics plants
- Emerging trends of industrialized drone warfare and mutual saturation campaigns
- Relatively low unit cost and growing domestic production of UAVs on both sides