# [24H] Russian Refined Product Exports Face Immediate Disruption From Repeated Perm Refinery Strikes

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:13 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T07:13:33.624Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T07:13:33.624Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, EU (especially Central and Eastern Europe), Turkey, Global refined product markets
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Urals crude differentials, ICE Gasoil futures, European diesel spreads, Lukoil financial instruments
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26353.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, evidence is likely to emerge of at least short-term disruption to Russian refined product exports—particularly diesel and gasoline—from Lukoil’s Perm complex following fresh strikes and fires. Traders and shipping trackers will report delayed loadings, rerouting from other ports, or drawdowns from storage to mask the outage. This will modestly widen diesel and gasoil crack spreads in Europe and support a small risk premium on Brent and Urals. Confirmation would include visible declines in Perm-linked rail or pipeline flows and official or corporate acknowledgments of reduced throughput; disconfirmation would be credible statements and data showing normal operations with only cosmetic damage.

## Drivers

- Multiple independent alerts of new explosions and strikes on Lukoil Perm refinery
- Perm’s importance as one of Russia’s top inland refineries (13 mtpa capacity)
- Emerging Ukrainian focus on Russian refining backbone