# [24H] Ukraine Likely Launches Additional Deep-Strike Drones on Russian Refineries Within 24 Hours

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:13 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T07:13:33.624Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T07:13:33.624Z (23h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Perm Krai, Voronezh Oblast, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Moscow Flight Information Region
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery infrastructure, Pipeline and rail fuel logistics, Regional air-defense systems
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26348.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Ukraine is likely to send at least a small follow-up wave of long-range drones toward Russian refining or industrial targets—potentially secondary facilities or previously struck sites like Perm—within 24 hours to sustain psychological and material pressure. Kyiv’s strategy appears to emphasize campaign continuity rather than one-off blows, particularly against fuel and defense electronics capacity. Even limited hits or near-misses will force Russia to keep high alert and divert air-defense assets from the front. Confirmation would be Russian regional governor reports of drones over interior oblasts and airspace closures; disconfirmation would be a notable lull in Ukrainian long-range drone activity despite recent successes.

## Drivers

- Fresh strikes on Perm, Voronezh, Ulyanovsk, and Novoshakhtinsk reported in same night
- Emerging trend of Ukraine shifting deep-strike focus to Russia’s refining and electronics backbone
- Operational and information value of demonstrating sustained reach into Russian interior