# [24H] UN Hormuz Condemnation Forces Iran to Soften Rhetoric but Not Proxy Threats

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 1:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T01:16:48.150Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T01:16:48.150Z (18h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Gulf States, Iran
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Tanker freight rates (AG–Asia, Red Sea), Islamic Republic of Iran sovereign risk
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26322.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Iranian officials will issue calibrated statements acknowledging global concern about Hormuz while maintaining deniability over Houthi actions and insisting on sanctions relief. Publicly, Tehran will emphasize President Pezeshkian’s willingness to give up 60% enriched uranium under NPT oversight to portray itself as reasonable. Privately and via proxies, it will retain the threat of Gulf and Red Sea disruption as leverage in talks. Confirmation would be Iranian foreign ministry or presidential statements stressing diplomacy but avoiding any hard pledge to restrain Houthis; negation would be a clear directive distancing Iran from attacks and calling for immediate end to maritime targeting.

## Drivers

- Pezeshkian’s public offer to give up 60% enriched uranium within NPT framework
- UNGA statement by 80 countries demanding Hormuz reopening and condemning Iran/Houthi attacks
- Emerging trend of Iran leveraging brinkmanship and proxies as a bargaining chip