# [24H] Limited Skirmishing Continues on Ukraine’s Orikhiv and Donetsk Axes Without Major Breakthroughs

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 1:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T01:16:48.150Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T01:16:48.150Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Eastern Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, Western Russia
**Affected Assets**: European natural gas benchmarks (TTF), Ukrainian sovereign risk, Defence and artillery supply chains in EU and NATO states
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26320.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Russian and Ukrainian forces will continue localized assaults and counter‑assaults around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia and in the Dobropillia–Donetsk sector, but without a decisive shift in the front line. Russia will likely claim additional small tactical gains, while Ukraine emphasizes successful raids and strikes on logistics and command nodes. The attritional pattern will further deplete ammunition and manpower without altering strategic balance. Confirmation would be continued daily but geographically constrained engagement reports; negation would be evidence of a multi‑brigade offensive or a sudden withdrawal by either side.

## Drivers

- Reports of Russian capture of Dobrovillia Mala in Donetsk region
- Ongoing clashes and counterattacks reported on the Orikhiv front
- Emerging trend describing the war as entrenched attrition with limited maneuver