# [24H] Houthi Attempted Follow‑On Strikes Near Yanbu and Red Sea Shipping Corridor

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 1:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T01:16:48.150Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T01:16:48.150Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Saudi Arabia, Red Sea, Yemen
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Arab Light crude exports, Saudi Aramco infrastructure, Regional shipping and marine insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26318.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Houthi forces are likely to attempt at least one additional strike—missile, drone, or claimed operation—against Saudi targets linked to Yanbu or along the Red Sea corridor. The operational goal will be to reinforce the credibility of their threat to close Bab al‑Mandab and raise costs for Saudi Arabia and its backers. This will heighten alert postures for French forces deploying to defend Yanbu and for U.S./allied naval units in the Red Sea. Confirmation would be Saudi or allied interception reports, Houthi video releases, or localized damage reports; negation would be an unusual, public Houthi pause paired with messaging focused solely on deterrence.

## Drivers

- Recent Houthi claims of strikes on Yanbu Aramco facilities and a Riyadh target
- Repeated explicit Houthi threats to close Bab al‑Mandab if the U.S. intervenes
- French deployment of air defenses to protect Yanbu, signaling its significance as a target