# [24H] Brent Crude Likely to Trade and Settle Sustained Above Recent Range on Hormuz and Yanbu Shocks

*Issued Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 9:02 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-24T21:02:00.355Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T21:02:00.355Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf region, Europe, East Asia, South Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI, Dubai benchmark, Tanker freight indices, Energy-sensitive emerging market FX
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26291.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to remain meaningfully above its pre‑Hormuz and Yanbu levels, with intraday spikes and a close that prices in sustained Gulf disruption risk. Market participants will factor in Iran’s missile enforcement of a blockade, Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure, and uncertainty over US–Iran talks, supporting a structurally higher geopolitical risk premium. This will spill over into higher tanker rates, wider backwardation, and improved margins for non‑Gulf producers. Confirmation would be Brent sustaining or extending gains despite any tentative diplomatic headlines; a rapid retracement driven by concrete, verifiable Hormuz reopening steps would contradict this forecast.

## Drivers

- Reports of Iranian missile fire on shipping near Hormuz
- Damage and pipeline shutdown at Yanbu following Houthi attack
- French deployment signaling expectations of ongoing threat
- Market behavior already showing sharp oil price jump