# [7D] Dual Chokepoint Fears Sustain Elevated Oil and LNG Prices Through the Week

*Issued Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 9:33 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-24T09:33:23.689Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-01T09:33:23.689Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global energy markets, Middle East, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman crude, TTF gas futures, JKM LNG benchmark, Tanker and LNG shipping equities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26236.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming 7 days, fears of combined disruptions at Bab‑el‑Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are likely to keep Brent, Dubai, and key LNG benchmarks structurally elevated even if no full closure occurs. Oil majors and traders will pre‑emptively reroute some flows around the Cape of Good Hope and seek alternative insurance arrangements, raising delivered costs. European and Asian buyers will move to lock in additional cargoes, supporting backwardation in crude and LNG curves. Denial would require Iran de‑escalating its rhetoric and a clear, monitored reopening of Bab‑el‑Mandeb to Saudi exports.

## Drivers

- Houthi blockade of Saudi exports via Bab‑el‑Mandeb
- Iranian commander’s threat explicitly linking Bab‑el‑Mandeb and Hormuz
- International Gas Union warning that Middle East war disruptions will keep gas tight and prices high