# [24H] Houthis Consolidate Control Over Bab‑el‑Mandeb Port and Island, Enforce De Facto No‑Sail Zone

*Issued Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 9:33 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-24T09:33:23.689Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-25T09:33:23.689Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, Yemen
**Affected Assets**: Saudi crude and refined product export flows, VLCC and Suezmax tanker traffic, Maritime insurers covering Red Sea and Gulf of Aden routes, Regional naval forces and bases
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26220.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Houthi forces are likely to entrench positions at the seized Yemeni port and Gulf of Aden island, using missiles, drones, and patrol craft to deter or harass tankers linked to Saudi or coalition interests. Commercial shipping will begin self‑diverting or slowing transits near the chokepoint even before a formal blockade declaration, especially for Saudi‑flagged or Saudi‑destined cargoes. This will force Riyadh and its partners to decide quickly between naval show‑of‑force patrols and quieter diplomatic channels via Oman or Iran. A denial would be rapid, verified withdrawal of Houthi fighters or public guarantees allowing Saudi exports to resume normally.

## Drivers

- Flash reports confirming Houthi seizure of a strategic southern Yemeni port and nearby island
- Explicit description that Saudi oil exports via Bab‑el‑Mandeb are now blocked
- Iranian threats to close Bab el‑Mandeb and Hormuz signaling proxy support for escalation