# [7D] Prolonged Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Risk Likely to Raise Food and Fuel Insecurity in Fragile States

*Issued Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 3:33 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-23T15:33:23.405Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-30T15:33:23.405Z (7d from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 66% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Yemen, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Horn of Africa, Levant
**Affected Assets**: Wheat import programs, Food aid logistics, Local fuel and food retail markets, Humanitarian NGO supply chains
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26149.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Sustained war-risk around Hormuz and an increasingly militarized Bab el-Mandeb are likely to raise shipping costs and delays for food and fuel into fragile states over the next week. Countries reliant on Gulf and Black Sea routes via Suez will face higher landed prices that quickly transmit to bread and transport costs. This risks protests, riots, or political instability in states with limited fiscal buffers. Confirmation would be reports of delayed cargoes, higher freight surcharges for East Africa and Yemen, and early-stage demonstrations over prices; rapid deployment of international food and fuel support or shipping subsidies could blunt the impact.

## Drivers

- Hormuz shipping slowdown and record tanker rates
- Houthi advance to Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint
- High sensitivity of food-importing fragile states to freight and fuel costs