# [7D] US–Venezuela Rapprochement Likely to Produce Framework for Expanded Oil and Mining Licenses

*Issued Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 3:33 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-23T15:33:23.405Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-30T15:33:23.405Z (7d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 62% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: de-escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Venezuela, United States, Caribbean, China, India
**Affected Assets**: Venezuelan crude (Merey blend), Heavy-sour crude benchmarks (Maya, Arab Heavy), US Gulf Coast refining margins, Metals and minerals tied to Venezuelan mining
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26146.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

The reported "historic" Trump–Maduro meeting and stated intent to deepen cooperation in energy and mining make it likely that, within a week, Washington and Caracas will outline a framework for expanded oil and mineral export licenses. This could include conditional easing of sanctions on PDVSA and selected mining operations in exchange for political or security concessions. Such a move will reinsert Venezuelan heavy-sour crude and minerals into global supply calculations, partly offsetting lost Russian and potentially Iranian barrels. Confirmation would be Treasury or State guidance on new or extended OFAC licenses; strong Congressional backlash or regime missteps (e.g., opposition crackdowns) could slow or narrow the framework.

## Drivers

- Official Venezuelan characterization of a 'historic' meeting with the US President
- Signals of intent to strengthen ties in energy, mining, and security
- US interest in diversifying heavy-sour supply amid Russia and Iran disruptions