# [30D] Russia-Ukraine Energy War Entrenches, Normalizing Deep Strikes on Refineries and Grids

*Issued Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 9:33 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-23T09:33:31.951Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-23T09:33:31.951Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, European Russia, EU power grid neighbors
**Affected Assets**: Global crude and product benchmarks, European power futures, Critical energy infrastructure insurance
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26121.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, the mutual targeting of energy infrastructure is likely to become a central, normalized front of the Russia‑Ukraine war, with both sides routinely striking refineries, depots, and grid nodes deep in each other’s territory. Russia will continue using jet‑drones and missiles to erode Ukraine’s winter energy resilience, while Ukraine expands its drone campaign against major Russian refineries and possibly power plants. This entrenched energy war will raise the floor on global oil and power price volatility and complicate any future ceasefire negotiations, as energy assets become bargaining chips. Confirmation would be a sustained pattern of weekly deep strikes causing measurable capacity losses; denial would require a credible domain‑specific de‑escalation understanding taking hold.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: mutual energy targeting and energy ceasefire discourse
- Recent high-volume Russian drone barrages on energy and logistics
- Repeated Ukrainian strikes on Ufa, Samara, and Russian border-region grids