# [7D] EU Sanctions Split Over Russian Oligarchs Fuels Friction With Kyiv and Eastern Members

*Issued Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 9:34 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-22T21:34:00.050Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-29T21:34:00.050Z (7d from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: EU, Ukraine, Russia
**Affected Assets**: European banks with Russia exposure, Russian corporate Eurobonds (sanctioned vs unsanctioned), Euro exchange rate through political risk channel
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26042.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine and several Eastern EU member states are likely to publicly criticize the removal of Usmanov and Fridman from the EU sanctions list, deepening intra-European rifts over Russia policy even as sanctions are extended to 2029. This friction could slow consensus on new Russia-related measures, including closing loopholes on energy and dual-use trade, and give Moscow propaganda fodder about waning Western resolve. The dispute will also complicate any U.S.-driven push to realign sanctions as part of a Ukraine settlement. Confirmation would be formal protests or sharp statements from Kyiv, Poland, or the Baltics, and defensive messaging from Berlin or Paris; denial would be muted reaction and quick efforts to jointly justify the delisting.

## Drivers

- EU decision to extend Russia sanctions to 2029 while dropping two prominent oligarchs
- Immediate rebuke from Kyiv
- Broader emerging trend of U.S. push for rapid Ukraine settlement reshaping alliance bets