# [24H] Global Tanker Insurance Premia to Spike Further on Conflicting Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Signals

*Issued Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 3:39 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-22T15:39:36.899Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-23T15:39:36.899Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, Bab el‑Mandeb, European and Asian import terminals
**Affected Assets**: Marine insurance premia, Tanker and LNG shipping equities, Refined product crack spreads in Europe and Asia, Bunker fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26001.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, war‑risk and hull insurance premia for tankers transiting both Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb are likely to be raised again as underwriters reassess worst‑case conflict scenarios. The combination of near‑zero Hormuz flows, active Houthi and Southern Giants drone activity near Bab el‑Mandeb, and ambiguous Iranian reopening signals will be treated as a structural, not transient, risk. This will increase delivered crude and product costs into Europe and Asia, and could prompt some shippers to idle or re‑route vessels, tightening effective spare capacity. Confirmation would be circulars from major P&I clubs or reported premium hikes; denial would be underwriters explicitly holding or lowering rates following credible de‑escalation steps.

## Drivers

- Data showing Hormuz cargo traffic collapse
- Giants Forces and Southern Giants drone strikes near Bab el‑Mandeb
- Recent Houthi attacks that temporarily shut Saudi East–West pipeline
- Conflicting Iranian statements on reopening timetable creating uncertainty