# [24H] Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Raids on Russian Refineries Likely to Continue Within 24 Hours

*Issued Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 4:17 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-22T04:17:40.607Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-23T04:17:40.607Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia (Moscow Oblast, Samara Oblast, Volga region), Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery throughput, Diesel and gasoline export availability from Russia, European and Mediterranean refined products trade
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25833.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Following successful strikes on the Moscow-area and Samara Novokuibyshevsk refineries, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional long-range UAV raid against Russian refining or fuel storage within 24 hours to maintain psychological and economic pressure. Targets will likely be deep rear facilities in Moscow, Volga, or Black Sea regions where prior vulnerabilities have been exposed. Continued raids will force Russia to divert air defenses from frontline units and raise the Kremlin’s domestic vulnerability narrative. Confirmation would be Russian regional alerts, NOTAMs, or local videos of UAV intercepts/explosions around major refineries; denial would be an absence of such activity combined with Ukrainian messaging shifting back to tactical strikes.

## Drivers

- Recent Ukrainian strikes halting a Moscow refinery and re-igniting Novokuibyshevsk
- Emerging trend of systemic Ukrainian energy warfare targeting refineries
- Success incentivizing continued pressure while Russian air defense gaps remain evident