# [7D] Ukraine Intensifies Deep-Strike Energy Campaign Despite Nascent Ceasefire Talk

*Issued Monday, September 21, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-21T22:17:52.815Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-28T22:17:52.815Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Moscow region, Eastern and Central Ukraine, Black Sea
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Diesel and gasoil spreads, Russian electricity and fuel markets, European power and gas prices (as hedge proxies)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25814.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Across the next week, Ukraine is likely to maintain or modestly escalate drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, leveraging recent success against the Moscow Oil Refinery to pressure Moscow before any ceasefire framework solidifies. New targets could include additional refineries, fuel depots, and rail fuel nodes in western and central Russia. This will keep Russian rear-area defenses stretched and may provoke retaliatory salvos against Ukrainian power plants, prolonging winter energy insecurity. Confirmation would be further Ukrainian-claimed hits on refineries or fuel depots; denial would be an observable pause in long-range Ukrainian attacks tied to ceasefire channels.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: escalation of Ukraine’s refinery and drone-strike campaign as systemic energy warfare
- Recent large-scale strike on Moscow region including AVT-6 processing unit
- Current lack of formalized ceasefire mechanism despite Zelensky’s signals