# [24H] Sudan’s Civilian Toll Climbs as RSF Normalizes Drone Strikes on Urban Neighborhoods

*Issued Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-20T22:16:38.178Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-21T22:16:38.178Z (21h from now)
**Category**: HUMANITARIAN | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: El-Obeid, Sudan, Greater Kordofan region, Neighboring humanitarian corridors
**Affected Assets**: UN and NGO field operations in Sudan, Humanitarian aviation services, Regional food-aid supply chains
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25696.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, further or follow-on RSF drone attacks against urban or peri-urban areas in Sudan, including El-Obeid or similar contested zones, are likely as the group tests its emerging UAV capability. Civilian casualties will grow as residential zones and basic infrastructure, such as markets and water points, fall within strike envelopes. Strategically, this entrenches the normalization of drone warfare against civilian areas in Africa, discouraging displaced families from returning and deterring humanitarian staff from operating in contested towns. Confirmation would be additional RSF-claimed or documented UAV incidents in urban settings; denial would be an abrupt cessation of such attacks combined with RSF messaging emphasizing restraint, which is unlikely.

## Drivers

- AFRICOM report of RSF drone strikes on residential areas in El-Obeid causing casualties
- Emerging trend: global diffusion of cheap uncrewed systems as strategic weapons
- Normalization of UAV use in Sudan’s internal conflict